So upon hearing that LeBron James should get Finals MVP even in loss like Jerry West, I decided to look at that SEVEN game series in 1969 and compare it to the 2015 Finals that’s only FIVE games in. LeBron's Big 3 of averages include 36.6 points per game, 12.4 rebounds per game, and 8.8 assists per game. West’s averages during this series were 37.9 points per game, 4.7 rebounds per game, and 7.4 assists per game. All stats gathered from basketball-reference.com. LeBron plays slightly more minutes per game (45.6) than West (43.9) but not too much. LeBron's averages are better... barely. West’s ppg rivals LeBron WITHOUT the 3pt shot. Too many people seem to forget this. West shot 49%. Bron is shooting 39%. Something to take into consideration here, steals and blocks weren't recorded as stats back then. Also to note, only 4 guys rebounded in double digits in a big dominated game back then. Wilt Chamberlain, Bill Russell, Elgin Baylor, & John Havlicek. That's just how the game was. With the 2015 finals being about small ball, having both teams often run lineups where forwards play center (Draymond Green & LeBron James) I feel that Bron's rebound numbers are absolutely inflated, with only Tristan Thompson and himself averaging double digits in rebounds. I’ll give the face value of basic stats to Jerry West. I feel that his performance was more impressive in a game that was still in its infancy. LeBron just simply does not compare and I tally a point against him.
But this so far is just comparing LeBron to West. West was chosen as MVP between him and his opponent Celtics. I’ll give LeBron the same respect, but with a catch. West absolutely outplayed any individual effort from the Celtics. Does LeBron do that against the Warriors? Let's find out. Starting out in 1969, 2 easy candidates on those Celtics for Finals MVP were Russell and Havlicek, both playing every single minute of each game and Russell also acting as coach. Russell played like typical Russell. About 20 rebounds per game and only 9 ppg in his final year as a player in the NBA while also locking down Wilt Chamberlain to only 11.7ppg and 25rpg. Yeah, West outplayed the guy who locked down one of the greatest scorers ever. But alas, we do not know his definitive number of blocks and steals per game, for which we know Russell got quite a fair share. Nevertheless, the next up would be Havlicek. Averaging 28ppg (STILL WITHOUT THE 3PT SHOT) and 11rpg on 45% with 4.4apg. Even without steals and blocks recorded, I'd argue that he played better than the leading Warriors candidate Steph Curry, who gets about 26ppg 5rpg and 5.8apg with 1.6spg in 42 minutes. As previously stated, LeBron’s stats are similar to West’s, so As West has outplayed the individual effort of the Celtics, LeBron has outplayed the individual effort of the Warriors. I have to give the point for him.
Now for the tiebreaker. I was honestly ready to give it to LeBron. He barely loses the first evaluation and convincingly takes the second. Then I got the idea to look into individual games. The results were staggering. Jerry West’s Lakers had a positive overall point differential of +3 in a 7 game series loss. LeBron’s Cavs that are down 2-3 in the Finals currently, have a differential of -7. Looking even further, when West lost, the differential was -8 and in wins the differential was +7. In LeBron’s wins the differential is only 3.5, but in a loss, the differential is an astonishing -14. Now I understand that a win is a win and a loss is a loss, but you cannot deny the vast difference in the quality of wins and losses. West’s largest loss margin was Game 6 by 9 points, right after he sustained a hamstring injury late in Game 5. LeBron’s largest margin in defeat is a whopping 21 points on his own home floor in Game 4. Though after losing Game 6, West dropped a triple double in a 2 point Game 7 loss. The end of the 2015 NBA Finals is yet to be determined, but following trends and probabilities, it seems that LeBron is not likely to come out as the victor of this series, especially with two straight double digit losses, events that have never happened to West. For these reasons, LeBron should NOT win 2015 NBA Finals MVP in the event of a loss. Unless he happens to force a game seven series and set a few incredibly substantial marks statistically but let’s not think about the future just yet.
P.S. Jerry West’s Finals MVP in 1969 was also the first year that the award was given out. Because there were too many variables and assumptions to be made about this factoid, I decided not to use it either for or against me, but to let you all interpret it as you may.
*Update 6/17/15* LeBron didn't win
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